2025 Review: First Light, Unfaded Mist

This marks my second year of surviving independently. If I were to summarize it in one sentence: A glimmer of light has emerged through the mist, though the path ahead remains hazy.

2025 was a year of diverse experiments, yet I have not quite found a direction that generates a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. However, my investment portfolio—a field I hadn’t focused on for a long time—yielded significant returns. My total asset growth rate for the year was 7.6%, with a portfolio return of 7.8%. It’s fair to say that passive income provided the “glimmer of light” this year, giving me the financial breathing room to explore new directions while my living expenses were covered.

1 2025 in Retrospect

At the beginning of the year, I explored the potential of AI-driven independent development and the “One-Person Company” model. Using AI as a coding assistant, I ventured into the unfamiliar territory of front-end development to build a tool site, monetizing it through Google AdSense. Traffic was minimal; it served primarily as a “warm-up” project.

I then delved into the AI inference market and researched startups in the field, looking for opportunities in AI infrastructure. I attempted to build a comprehensive product, managing everything from development and DevOps to product operations. This pushed me far beyond my existing capabilities. Everything was new, requiring constant learning and heavy reliance on AI assistance. The pressure was immense—I worked over 14 hours a day, and the mental stimulation was so intense that I suffered from severe insomnia, often staying awake until dawn. Ultimately, due to high operational costs and a high probability of financial loss, the project was shelved after development was complete.

By June, I began to slow down and refocus on my investment income. Noticing a recovery in the Chinese A-share market, I re-engaged with my portfolio and adjusted my holdings.

In late August, I moved to Hangzhou to lower my cost of living.

I spent the second half of the year deepening my knowledge of investing and spending my spare time consuming books and videos on entrepreneurship and economics.

2 The Shift: From Engineer to Entrepreneur

I feel like a leaf that has fallen from its branch to the earth—taking root and sprouting, weathering the storms in the hope of one day becoming a towering tree that stands tall against the elements. From a purely wealth-accumulation standpoint, this was not the “optimal” choice. On the “tree” (the corporate platform), wealth accumulates steadily; the platform shields you and amplifies your skills. On the ground, you are self-reliant, and the world is full of uncertainty. However, I feel healthier this year. My complexion has improved, and the stress-induced oiliness of my skin has faded. Work is for a better life; life is the foundation.

My greatest transformation has been moving away from the “engineer’s mindset” of obsessing over technical details. Instead, I now focus on user needs, business opportunities, and commercial viability. Technology is no longer the end goal for me. I fell into the classic trap of many technical founders: holding a hammer and looking for a nail, rather than starting from a real user need. Reading The E-Myth Revisited deepened this realization. I must transition from an engineer to a business owner—identifying scenarios, demands, and markets, rather than just “finding a job” to do for myself. Validation, business models, and operations are the real keys; technology is secondary.

3 On AI and the Future

AI represents a “lane-change” opportunity for ordinary people. It is like a new gate opening at a crowded station; those at the back of the line can suddenly surge ahead through the new path. One only needs to catch one or two such waves in a lifetime. Finding my niche within the AI ecosystem is my next goal. However, current Large Language Models (LLMs) are certainly not the final form of AI, and the “chat” interface has limited use cases. According to the Tech Hype Cycle, AI is currently in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.” When this bubble will burst remains to be seen.

4 Investment Strategy for 2026

Investment returns are inherently uncertain, and the greatest enemy of the “snowball” (compounding) is volatility. My priority is to lower volatility, minimize drawdowns, and improve the quality of my returns. Before I invest, I ask myself: Whose money am I making? If it is a zero-sum game of “swapping pockets,” I stay away. No one wants to be the last one holding the bag. Given that A-shares are currently at a historical high where retail investors struggle to exit in time, my 2026 strategy is to reduce my exposure to A-shares. I will not add positions at these levels; instead, I will sell into the rally and reallocate to undervalued sectors or remain in cash. The core strategy is subtraction—reducing the number of holdings.

I prefer a portfolio that is simple, low-cost, long-term, and low-volatility. I spend 20% of my time on investment research to outperform 80% of people, and 80% of my time figuring out how to monetize the decade of experience I’ve accumulated. I have no desire to simply “lie flat.” I still hope to do something that impacts the world—something that might be remembered. But for now, the priority is to establish a stable, continuous cash flow before chasing higher ideals.

Reduce volatility, increase returns. Sharpen the tools, and wait for the opportunity.